Ebola: Let The Pilots Lead Us

Flying is, contrary to the cliché, very dangerous. Dynamically-speaking

It is so dangerous that pilots do a methodical series of checks before every flight. And they have many "fire-drill" style procedures to follow in case something goes wrong during a flight (for example, the stall procedure).

Because these checks and methods are in place, air travel is quite safe. Statistically-speaking..

I make this point because I want to reveal the dangerous illusion of thinking in a statistical manner rather than in a dynamic manner when it comes to disasters. You think in circles when you think statistically. You look at things as giant lumps, from a distance, but you don't open them up and get into how they interact and operate. And you need to do that to understand disasters.

Driving is more dangerous than flying, statistically, because it's so much safer than flying, dynamically. Because it's so safe to drive, dynamically, we have a lackadaisical attitude toward it. Thus, it becomes more dangerous overall -- statistically. (Who here drives a car with  the kind of safety checklist and emergency training a pilot uses while flying? Nobody. You just get in your car and go without too much thought.)

When you understand what pilots do, you see how statistics lie. Air travel IS dangerous. If your engine goes while you're driving, you can pull over, call a tow truck, et cetera. If your engine goes while you're flying, there's a good chance you'll die. Because of that, you make damn sure your engine won't go!: you check it before each flight; you put switches and gauges in the cockpit to give you precise control over the engine; you design the aircraft with multiple engines so one can go down and you'll still survive, and so on.

Likewise, you need to think dynamically when you think about disasters. You need to think more in terms of immediate cause-and-effect, less in terms of abstractions and removed statistics. Otherwise there's a good chance you'll kill people unnecessarily.

Lets look at some dangerous illusions being caused by statistical, abstract and circular (non-dynamic) thinking patterns about this ebola situation...

Ebola: Come As You Are

Last night I may have contracted ebola. That's a very slim maybe.

I was at the local watering hole. Karaoke night. It's fun.

The karaoke master has about three gigs, rotating, between various bars. With that microphone, passing hand to hand. He was vomiting outside the pub. Stupidly I shared a smoke with him. So if he has it I now do, too. But that's okay.

He seemed to think it was just because he was drinking. (Maybe it was.) But still, vomiting? I asked him if he had a sore throat. He said no. But still. A heavy drinker, vomiting?

Ah, it's okay. I'll monitor myself. It's not like I haven't been here before...